Signal Lab

Lead-to-Revenue Forecast

Funnel + stage-calibrated pipeline — expected bookings from your stage-to-won rates, not CRM default percentages

Revenue / Pipeline What-ifs Profitability

Signal Lab · Model

Lead-to-Revenue Forecast

Funnel + stage-calibrated pipeline — walk enquiry to booked using historical stage-to-won rates, then cover the target at 1 / win rate, not a blind 3×.

Illustrative AU training / safety sample until you paste actuals. Not financial advice. Starter stage-to-won % are illustrative — not CRM 20/40/60/80.

YOUR historical rates, then funnel and pipeline

Paste stage-to-won first — that is the product. Then the AU training / safety chain (enquiry → qualified → quote → booked/contract). Persist locally only.

Results update live below · Jump to forecast

YOUR historical stage-to-won rates required · this is the product

Starter percentages are illustrative — not CRM 20/40/60/80, and not your history. Paste rolling 12-month (or 4–8 quarter) entry-to-won rates. Recalibrate quarterly.

Illustrative starter

Illustrative starter

Illustrative starter

Illustrative starter

Illustrative starter

Funnel conversion chain

Editable step names. Default is the AU training / safety sample — swap labels to match your desk.

Open pipeline $ by stage

Four to five editable stage names. Dollar values are the open book, not weighted.

Calibrated forecast

Funnel leakage, expected bookings from historical stage-to-won, and coverage at 1 / win rate — not a blind 3×.

Funnel leakage map

Where volume drops on the conversion chain. New-lead expected $ = booked volume × ASP.

Stage-calibrated expected bookings

Σ (open pipeline $ × your historical stage-to-won %). This is the forecast — not CRM defaults.

CRM 20/40/60/80 comparison only — not the forecast

Round CRM defaults are a sanity check. Never treat 20/40/60/80 as truth. Calibrated is the product.

Stretch (placeholder only): pipeline → delivery capacity hours for services (trainer / assessor hours, Drivetrain-style) — not in this build.

How this is calculated
  • Funnel chain — volume at each step = prior volume × conversion %. Enquiry-to-won = product of the three rates.
  • Calibrated expected bookings = Σ (open pipeline $ by stage × historical stage-to-won %). This is the product.
  • CRM-weighted (sanity check only) = Σ (open $ × 20/40/60/80/100). Never used as the forecast.
  • Calibrated win rate = expected bookings ÷ open pipeline $.
  • Required coverage = 1 ÷ calibrated win rate (not a blind 3×). Required pipeline = target × required coverage.
  • Gap to target = period bookings target − calibrated expected bookings.
  • Velocity (optional) ≈ (open opps × win rate × ASP) ÷ cycle days → daily capacity × selling days.

Further reading (not scraped): ORM-Tech · Lative · Phoenix · Oscom. Illustrative — not advice.

Sensitivity dials

Live expected bookings and gap. +leads, +conversion pts, +ASP, −cycle.

What-if dials

Conversion pts lift funnel rates and historical stage-to-won (except already-won). Cycle moves velocity; bookings still use the calibrated snapshot plus new-lead flow.

Adds enquiry volume × adjusted enquiry-to-won × ASP to expected bookings.

Adds percentage points to each funnel step and to historical stage-to-won (capped at 100%; already-won stays).

Scales calibrated expected $ and new-lead flow by the new ASP.

Negative shortens the cycle and lifts theoretical daily / period capacity.

Take it with you

Download a prompt or export Excel — paste rates, recalibrate quarterly, coverage-gap asks.

Email opens your mail client with the prompt in the body (mailto). No account required. Data stays in this browser (localStorage).